The Perfect Storm - Investing & Profiting From the Real Estate Market Collapse in Phoenix, Arizona

What are the causes of A Perfect Storm?

Well, that million-dollar question, is not it?

What I think is a perfect storm is a series of circumstances that occur once, maybe twice in his life, offers a unique opportunity to acquire undervalued real estate prices artificially low. It was a similar opportunity in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when using the RTC (Resolution Trust Corporation - a publicly owned company to liquidate primarily to excludecommercial plants) was one of the biggest fire sale of commercial property in U.S. history. This was a time when the assets in the acquisition made by too distressed real estate assets. At this time, the collapse of the market by 3 main factors (1) change in U.S. tax laws affecting real estate investors was caused, (2) superstructure, (3) The Bank Savings & Loan scandal and fraudulent activities of mortgage lenders and appraisers.

So, what isso that the perfect storm today?

(1) Massive property speculation during the period 2003-2006
(2) too much credit available and to acquire real estate that has been overused by lenders and borrowers creditworthy Finance
(3) The current U.S. market overall decline / recession, in a global crisis
(4) Current lack of funds for qualified borrowers
(5) current oversupply of homes for sale
As you can see, there are 2 steps that followOne after another, which leads to the creation of a Perfect Storm and the opportunity to purchase homes at incredible value - The housing speculation or run-up phase and the collapse of the market. We will examine each of these phases, so that you focus more on what to do take this perfect time, leading informed investing in real estate.

But first we need to assess the most important question a real estate investor must, in choosing to examine where andwhen a real estate investment purchase - Location.

Underlying market strength

I'm sure you've heard the age-old adage that "location, location, location." I have to tell a different turn. Mine is more ", place, time, cash-flow". However, the situation is still the number one on the list. If the underlying market is not strong with the potential for rental and capital gains in the future, then what is the point of the system in the firstPlace?

Let us first look at metropolitan Phoenix as a whole for the situation. Why the hell you want to buy property in the middle of the desert?
Even though our market is currently severely depressed, Phoenix has shown remarkable resilience and long-term value for a number of reasons:

(1) climate - people want to live here because of the warm, sunny weather. There is snow, why birds in flocks come for the winter and into retirement. We all know that the baby boomersReaching retirement age.
(2) Affordability - Phoenix is one of the cheapest places to live in the U.S.. While these statistics took a temporary hit during the last boom, we have to be overturned once again to be particularly attractive to companies based on property prices, labor pools and the general cost of living. This will continue to win for the economy, employment and long-term retirees to the area.
(3) Standard Of Living - very high. Easy commute, and a fresh, young,vibrant city life leads people to want to here.

These factors have led to the remarkable positive population growth metro Phoenix has experience in the past 50 years. Even in times of economic hardship, the people here continue to move at a remarkable pace. This pressure on the housing market and inevitably leads to recognition.

After deciding that Phoenix to invest in real estate the right place, the next task, which he is a sub-market within the U-Bahn takeRegion that the investment makes sense. Some of the most important factors include:

(1) area of the largest price declines
(2) The proximity to employment
(3) The proximity to facilities
(4) quality of the area
(5) strength of the rental market / Values

These will be discussed later in this report and a qualified real estate professional can assist you in selecting sub-markets in which to invest meet these criteria.

The flat price structureRun-up

Phoenix Real Estate has always appreciated at a steady pace, with the exception of a few massive run-ups followed by sharp declines in value. The decline in the late 1980s was already briefly reviewed above. So what's the latest mass speculation and the run of the values from 2003 to 2006 caused?

Now there were a few perpetrators who acted together to create this latest debacle on.

(1) underlying market strength - As mentioned above, has inherent Metro Phoenixunderlying market strength. That's what started the ball rolling and cause the mass speculation for 3 LED + Jahr.

(2) cheap credit - interest rates went to unheard of levels to make it easier to buy more assets with less money.

(3) abundance of Credit - It began in the late 1990s, when Bill Clinton passed legislation Fast money so that more people buy homes has been created - the subprime market. People who do not should really buy homes during the firstCity were not just buying real estate, but buying larger properties than they could afford. As credit eased and values has risen again, free to a run on shares of credit lines and refinancing the equity in people's homes and allowed them to spend "invisible" justice in the consuming markets for consumer durables and services. This experience led to the economic boom that we are all in the early to mid-2000s. The result: Even homeowners who purchased the top of the boom and saw their property valuesIncrease 50-100% over a period of 5-6 years had left little or no equity in their homes by the end of this cycle esteem, as they all leached out by equity lines of credit, bonds and other methods.

(4) investor stupidity - When values went and loan was easier to achieve, investors started buying property with no money down and buy as many properties as they could get loans (see next item below). It was an exercise in buying high and hoping to sell higher.

It wasto the point that in 2005 there were actually busloads of investors who purchase in city driving around stopping in new housing subdivisions and queuing up for new dwellings. Why do they have to focus on new real estate? Because they could a house be built in the future purchase, put some money down to secure it and seeing the value of their property increase for 6-12 months, without so much they do not have! Then they would either flip it right away when it was completed, or keep them in the hope that itappreciate even more.

Builders were turning away buyers, operating lotteries and other methods to restrain the crowd, because they do not build houses fast enough, so they raise prices on a monthly basis - sometimes even a week further! As a result of new homes in 2004, 2005 and built over in 2006 by a large margin by 'fake' demand, since many of the buyers were investors and not the intention of ever living in the household!

This erroneous philosophy has worked for 2 + yearsthe period of greatest fool theory became reality. You know how it works ... How do you build a pyramid of fools, there are fewer and fewer bigger fools, as you work your way up. When you finally summit the biggest fool at the top looks around and sees no one stupider than he his property for more money and then buy, bring the whole edifice down. It took a while for property owners who tried to sell, to recognize that the prices were falling, do not goconducted by mid-2006, which come in a massive number of listings on the market only a few customers. This is further down under ", said The Market Collapse".

(5) Lender & Investor Fraud - as occurred in the run-in values, started lenders and investors, greedy. Lenders began with programs that have little or no sense for some home buyers to get into a home. Make many times by a buyer into a bigger home than they could know their customers with programs that itsCustomers do not understand completely.

Credit was so relaxed and easy to access during this time that many investors and home buyers have been too high in bad faith false their income, "stated-income ',' no-doc" loans and lenders were turning the other cheek and underwriting loans to report no clear proof of the borrower's ability.

The collapse of the market

So why did the proverbial fan Hit the $% #? Greed and loose lending were the perpetrators, and its climax whenInvestors and home buyers the money went to purchase and the overall economy began to slow down when people started running from capital and credit. As the housing market began to slow down, property sellers were steadfast in their faith that their home was worth more money than the current market value, as it was last month. But it was not.

From there, the first phase followed the collapse of the market. Overpriced homes for sale without a buyer. Real EstateOwnership unrealistic prices to sell their homes too high and the buyers began to withdraw to the sidelines because they were not willing to pay the exorbitant prices of real estate. Listings began to pile up and very few sales were occurring. Some owners began to realize what had happened, and let the price of their home to help sell them. As the market stabilized and began to resolve slowly, began phase two .....

Investors who are constantly on the property appreciation soon realized that the end wasoccurred. They began to property for sale en mass further effort by the supply side of the market. Because all these property investors not only on appreciation and cash flow-based think they soon realized that they not be able to depend on her status would be, if not sell them. Some tried to rent, but because they pay so much for the property, which properties could cover the costs. Some investors and homeowners hung longer than others, but almost allthey finally gave into the reality of declining property values.

This has been exacerbated by the diversity of the "flexible" mortgages, which were available to homebuyers and investors, including the shorter term, loans at lower interest rates. Investors plan to short holding periods, so naturally obtain loans with lower interest rates for shorter periods, as they planned to sell within 1-2 years. As the market has declined and could not sell these owners, these loans were due, and becauseProperty values were declining, they could not obtain new loans to cover the value of the old loans. Many other owners was for this reason, and it still persists.

As the loans go into default for nonpayment, is the owner of 2 ways out - short sale or walk on the left. Many went the way of short selling to minimize the affect on their credit ratings and those who could not or would not go that way eventually walked away from their property and let the bank take theProperty back.

I have detailed another article on this website, the pros and cons of buying short sales and bank owned homes in Phoenix.

The market was soon flooded with distressed properties of all kinds. Traded This forced house prices down further and faster than distressed properties usually aggressive, at least 5-10% less than the current market value. This cycle has continued in force values for the months up to the point where most of the submarkets in the metro Phoenix have25-50% decreased in the last 2 years. Some properties have declined more than 60% from their peak 2 years ago.

This has led to further problems in our region. By the extent of the downturn and the sheer number of vacant, distressed properties, many properties are now due to vandalism and theft outgoing owner is much more widespread, the vacancy rate. This is another setback as the compounding properties are in poor condition even more difficult to sell, and this must be ruled out that much moreto find a willing buyer.

When Will The Housing Market Hit Bottom?

Good question. Here is the answer .....

I have no idea. In fact, nobody does. But is "not the most important. There is no way to know for certain when the absolute bottom is reached. All you can do is wise to invest at the lower edge. Purchase properties that will become cash flow positive ( explained later), and wait until the wave ride back.

Why now?

There aresome critical elements in assessing the state of the market for residential properties and the proximity to the corner. Many of these criteria are now showing the prices of homes, the worst is over. Here are some of the statistics I've been watching closely, too believe me, we note that lead resistance, which creates a market bottom.

(1) Housing affordability shot through the roof
(2) residential properties are located on therise
(3) housing construction is at a 25-year low
(4) Applications for new mortgages are on the rise

The biggest concern that are still:

(1) The entire economy is weak and likely to get worse before better
(2) Credit is more difficult to obtain and larger down payments are now the rule in the purchase of real estate so that it is less for more people
(3) are still too many foreclosures and short sales on the market come from the frenzy of a few yearsbefore.

Affordable Housing Is Back!

One of the best indicators of the attractiveness of a particular real estate market for home ownership is the affordability index. This is a measure of how affordable housing in a specific area related to wages and incomes. A series of 65-70 shows a significant added value and low affordability for a large percentage of the population. As you can see, one of the driving forces of the metro Phoenix growth has always been housingAffordability. In the frenzy of speculation in the mid-2000s, the affordability declined for the numbers never seen before. As prices have fallen, you can get affordability back to the point where now we are on our historical average.

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Residential real estate is picking up steam!

As you can see from the table below (not available) on this page, is the marketing activity on the rise, although more than 40% of sales are currentlyLender-owned properties. This shows that we have begun to reach the resistance at the bottom, as it begins, the offers to take the lower end of the market. If this trend continues, this could be the slowdown in price decline and short-term stabilization of our values at home.

For these reasons, and I believe we are near the bottom, I think it will be a few years before we see a significant improvement to our neighborhood where values again begin to rise. Will it happen? Absolutely! How do Itried to explain above, the overall Metro Phoenix market is very strong for a variety of reasons, and ready to be a major growth region once again - and not too long into the future, either.

So why not wait until things begin to turn? Well, you certainly can, but there are 2 reasons why now is the ideal time to get involved.

(1) frequency of characteristics (supply) - with so many distressed properties out of all kinds, you now have your pick from what to buy and canaggressively on price. As the market more on demand with more buyers chasing good deals layers, the number of possibilities will surely decrease, it becomes increasingly difficult to find really good deals and it will buy more competition.
(2) Positive cash flow - the prices are so low right now that it is relatively easy to residential properties, which can generate a positive cash flow. Basically, this means that the rental income should cover all expenses and mortgage Costs, so that you can with the money at the end of the day. This will be explained below.

Why Residential Property?

Normally, I think not recommend the purchase of single family homes, because they are more difficult to manage effectively, and is usually not cash flow. The main benefits that they could invest over other forms of property you are:

(1) Cash - Simply put, there are more buyers for this type of real> Real Estate than any other. It is therefore easier to sell if needed for the largest value.
(2) potential for capital appreciation - for the small investor, it gives you the greatest potential for understanding when the right time, because it is such a broad market for the accommodation of buyers purchased
(3) Lower mortgage interest rates than commercial real estate investments, usually
(4) values may have dropped 30-60%, but the rents are not really fallen much at all.

In our current market, one of thebig mistake of home ownership has been abolished. It is now easier than it was in the last decades of residential property in the metro Phoenix to buy a positive cash flow.

How To Buy Property?

I shall begin this section by noting that my thoughts and suggestions in the evaluation of properties for sale are based on my experience and common sense. These are guidelines that you can choose to follow at your own discretion. I can not guarantee results and success for allInvestment. It is up to you to correctly evaluate investment opportunities and make decisions consistent with your goals and risk tolerance.

The choice of location

Here are important elements in selecting the area to be bought as an investment property

(1)-Ex area
(2) Near the highway access
(3) Within 30 minutes of major employment centers
(4) The proximity to shops and other amenities
(5) The proximity to schools
(6) Strong rental market - I meanwith a track record of other properties for prices, use the rent you to assess the profitability of the property as an investment can

The selection of the type of property

These criteria were developed to reduce your liability and investment risk and maximize your potential. Size criteria will the property in the range of properties that are easiest to keep to lease, rent for the highest value per square meter, and are easiest to sell, down the road, as, in linethe largest market segment of potential buyers.

For single family

(1) 3-4 bedrooms, 2 baths +
(2) 1,200 - 2,000 square meters with 2 garage
(3) Newer homes are better. Try and stay with 1995 and higher
(4) NO pool / spa in the backyard (too much liability and maintenance
(5) little or no maintenance landscaping is better

For Condos

(1) At least 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths
(2) for decent facilities in a complex (pool, spa, clubhouse)
(3) Stick with largerMunicipalities with 100 + units. If you verify at a smaller plant, you are going to check the viability of the HOA and fees

The advantage for condominiums as a whole is less maintenance required - especially on the road and in the community grounds. The disadvantage is that they can know at a slower pace than estimated single family residential area.

Using the figures

Even in the best of the worst market that we have wealth through real estate, you need to bebe careful. There are so many, if not more bad deals than good deals there. Correct assessment of a property is the difference between success and make up a poorly performing investments.

Before I did not forget to number analysis to the evaluation of CONDITON of the property. We recommend that you always get an inspection on every house you plan to buy, make sure you buy what you think you have to buy.

Initial analysis

Before aOffer on a property, you want to perform an initial analysis to see whether the property is generating a positive cash flow. To do this, you should already prequalified by a lender so that you know what Down payment requirements you have and what your financing costs. Once you know what the costs are, you are ready to assess the income and expenses.

Analysis of the income is fairly simple. You want to compare the rental rates in the environment forequal apartments in fair to good condition and the use of a figure in the bottom half of the rental rates to be conservative.

EXPENDITURE analysis is a bit trickier. There are a few items you will need to review the costs and come with a total expense amount. These can be broken down into the following:

Recurrent costs

Property Management - Figure 8-10% of gross rents to be paid as administrative fees for single family homes. The more properties you haveunder management, the higher the fee you may be able to negotiate with a management company.

Insurance - you must be able to create sufficient home and liability insurance to cover accidents, as tenants have in the premises. Make sure that proper coverage

Taxes

HOA fees - Many single-family houses in Phoenix, belong to a homeowners association if the fees are collected for the Community Service at regular intervals. Please make sure

Utilities - usually paid after theTenants in single family houses, so do not worry yourself about it. Check with your property manager for the things in their typical
Legal / Accounting - many investors forget one. Remember that you and your investment and the need for appropriate plans to minimize liability and to make your tax burden. Please speak with legal and tax specialist for more information. The more property you have, the less the cost of these items per object, as you can cover all the costsInvestment.

Maintenance costs - you may need to pay someone not to buy the exterior of the house One of the main reasons for a house with a pool / spa and low maintenance to keep the desert-style landscaping. Once a tenant is, they are usually responsible for the conservation of these areas.

VACANCY FACTOR - you will not always be a tenant in the property. You need to pay for the period between the tenants to make. When your rental price for the market aggressively, 1 month per year as the seatmore than sufficient.

One-time costs

These are costs that you incurred on the purchase of the property. You can put them in a bundle with the total investment cost of the down payment you want to use. These include:

Escrow fees and other costs of closure
Home Inspection
Termite Inspection
Other inspection fees (if applicable
Finance fees (for credit)

You will be able to prepare an estimate for all these costs before the introduction of a bid on a property.In general, you have 10 + days after the offer to accept all checks to run and pull all your data, make sure your estimates were correct. If you find something wrong with the homeland at this time, you will usually have the option to terminate the contract and soak in earnest money. Speak with your real estate professional for more information on the procedures for placing a bid on a property

Emergency Fund

It is important to alwayshave some extra cash on the side of emergency expenses, skips that a tenant is out or placed on the delinquent payments cover repair costs, etc. always be prepared for the unexpected.

Sample Analysis

Let's work through an example, so you would see how a typical investment might look at a single family home:

Our property is an example of a family house with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and 1,400 square meters for 100,000 U.S. dollars. We assume that you are 30% down to is this purchaseHome. A house like this is a typical example in today's market and can sell for 180,000 dollars - $ 200.000 + 3 years ago.

Total purchase consideration 100,000 U.S. dollars
Down payment (@ 30%) $ 30,000
Loan amount U.S. $ 70,000

Closing Costs
Down payment $ 30,000
Escrow Fees $ 1,000
Financing costs $ 1,500
Home Inspection $ 400
Termite Inspection $ 100
Total Closing Costs $ 33,000

Income
Monthly Rent $ 950
Less Vacancy Factor (1 months) $ 950
AnnualIncome € 10,450

Annual cost (estimated)
Taxes $ 800
Insurance $ 400
Property Management (@ 9%) $ 940
HOA fees ($ 50/month) $ 600
Maintenance / Repair / Cleaning $ 450
Legal / Accounting $ 250
Total annual expenses $ 3440

Net Operating Income $ 7010

Annuity (@ 7.5%) $ 5,874

Positive Cash Flow $ 1136
Initial return on investment (ROI) 3.4%
Return excluded appreciation

Condition of the apartment

There are 3different types of properties you can look to buy as an investment, as it relates to the condition.

Option A - Object Good Condition And Ready To Rent

Option B - Property in good condition, but require cosmetic repair to profitable. This is a property that his bank-owned or otherwise, could freely for a while. May have been extensively used or poorly maintained by the owner. Some work to be more cosmetic in nature and easy to appreciate. Things like carpet cleaning orSubstitute new equipment, painting, cleaning, repair, landscape, drywall touch-up

Option C - Property in poor condition, require a comprehensive repair and / or replacement. I only recommend this option for experienced, experienced investors who have a background in home construction, repair and cost analysis. You can purchase personal property is also capable of taking the current market value and create instant equity by fixing them, you can also lose your shirt if you do not know what you aredo.

If you are a novice real estate investor, I recommend you stick with Option A, to get your feet wet and a little more experience with repair and replacement costs.

Be pragmatic

Remember, it's an investment. Be a volcano. Do not show any emotion when it comes to buying a property or renting to a tenant. These figures are reasonable and the head must be there. Never Fall In Love With A HOME you buy as an investment. They are notwho live in it. Think of it as a pure income properties asset like a stock or bond. Make sure tenants properly verified and qualified.

Property Management

It is important to the quality of local administration, have to monitor your investment. Yes, it cost more money to pay them, but they help, the value of your assets and save calls from the clock at 3 in the morning to a plumbing leak. These factors in the numbers when assessing an investment and buy anything that is notpositive cash flow without management.

Why no interest?

Commercial real estate such as apartments, office, retail and industrial space are excellent investments - if purchased the right time. The consensus among the leading real estate investment professionals is that this segment of the market hit bottom yet and probably will not for a while. The time to pick up distressed real estate investments in these asset classes can still3-4 quarters will be removed (from the 4th quarter 2008).

Why? Because the economy fail, and fail the recession ends in full swing, many companies eventually. This is driving vacancy rates and reduced asset performance while reducing rental values of more space in a limited competition for tenants. Investors begin to factor in the increased yields and higher vacancy rates in their calculations of asset value from driving the prices of real estate. Normally, it takes some timeOwners, caught in this market trend and reduce their prices to declining market demand, then puts pressure on values. This is the same scenario that happened in the residential property arena in the mid to late 2006 and into 2007. I suspect that there will be many commercial properties, the default entered and buy back to the lenders creating opportunities for experienced investors to commercial property is very attractive values - butThe time has not come yet. Patience is guaranteed in this area.

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